The used car market is off to a solid start in 2026. According to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), wholesale prices rose to 212.3, a 4% increase year-over-year (YoY) and 0.8% higher than previously.
Dealers are seeing strong demand, and the shift from winter weather toward spring has boosted traffic at auctions. With tax refunds higher than last year, we could see even more activity—though environmental events and rising gas prices may temper the pace a bit.
<h3>Overall Price Trends</h3>
Wholesale vehicle prices are up across the board. Non-adjusted prices rose 4.2% YoY and 3% month-over-month (MoM). The Three-Year-Old Index saw a 3.1% increase, with retention averaging 100.3% and sales conversion climbing to 61.5%.
<b>Key Takeaways:</b> MMR prices are strong, retention is steady, and demand continues to climb. Sales conversion is higher than typical.
<h3>Segment Performance: Luxury Leads</h3>
Luxury vehicles continue to outperform the overall market, while compact cars and trucks lag behind in price growth. Non-electric vehicles are seeing solid gains, whereas electric vehicles have moderated slightly due to the end of government-backed incentives—but remain higher than last year.
<b>Highlights:</b> Luxury cars lead price growth
<b>Lagging:</b> Compact cars and trucks
<b>EV vs Non-EV:</b> EV up 1.8% YoY, Non-EV up 3.7%
<h3>Wholesale Supply & Rentals</h3>
Wholesale days’ supply fell to 26.7 days, slightly higher than last year but below historical norms. Rental vehicle prices climbed 9.1% YoY, helped by lower mileage and higher demand. Overall, inventory is tighter than pre-pandemic levels, keeping the market competitive.
<b>Supply:</b> 26.7 days on hand
<b>Rental Prices:</b> +9.1% YoY, +6% from January
<b>Trend:</b> Supply remains below long-term average
<h3>Market Outlook</h3>
Dealers are seeing stronger traffic and conversion, thanks to warmer weather and tax refunds. However, short-term caution is advised due to environmental uncertainty and rising fuel costs. Expect steady demand growth, with luxury and non-EV segments continuing to outperform.
<b>Watch For:</b> Dealer demand rising
<b>Potential Risks:</b> Environment events, gas prices
<b>Expected Trend:</b> Strengthening sales in March
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
The used vehicle market shows healthy trends, with price increases, strong retention, and solid dealer activity. Luxury and non-electric vehicles are leading the charge, EV values remain strong despite incentive expirations, and overall inventory is tighter than usual. For dealers and analysts alike, this sets the stage for a promising spring season in the U.S. used car market.
